Futures Risk

Risk and liquidity

Beyond two deviations

2of 20 markets

Nov 3, 2026

Natural gas - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -258,863contracts -

Three-year z-score -2.76σ -

Largest four traders - long 15.70% -

Largest four traders - short 19.40% -

Euro - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -157,791contracts -

Three-year z-score -2.73σ -

Largest four traders - long 19.00% -

Largest four traders - short 35.00% -

Australian dollar - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -129,457contracts -

Three-year z-score -1.83σ -

Largest four traders - long 38.10% -

Largest four traders - short 77.00% -

Mexican peso - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 18,017contracts -

Three-year z-score -1.46σ -

Largest four traders - long 37.00% -

Largest four traders - short 71.00% -

WTI crude - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 80,289contracts -

Three-year z-score -1.38σ -

Largest four traders - long 16.90% -

Largest four traders - short 22.10% -

Nasdaq 100 - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 42,873contracts -

Three-year z-score 1.37σ -

Largest four traders - long 19.80% -

Largest four traders - short 34.70% -

Bitcoin - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 2,230contracts -

Three-year z-score 1.32σ -

Largest four traders - long 71.00% -

Largest four traders - short 34.60% -

Silver - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 21,251contracts -

Three-year z-score -1.30σ -

Largest four traders - long 12.70% -

Largest four traders - short 28.80% -

Swiss franc - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -16,589contracts -

Three-year z-score 1.26σ -

Largest four traders - long 78.00% -

Largest four traders - short 28.20% -

Japanese yen - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 102,321contracts -

Three-year z-score 1.18σ -

Largest four traders - long 43.30% -

Largest four traders - short 41.00% -

2Y Treasury - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -1,002,544contracts -

Three-year z-score 1.18σ -

Largest four traders - long 26.00% -

Largest four traders - short 22.50% -

10Y Treasury - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -962,359contracts -

Three-year z-score -1.16σ -

Largest four traders - long 31.00% -

Largest four traders - short 19.10% -

British pound - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -59,821contracts -

Three-year z-score -1.07σ -

Largest four traders - long 46.70% -

Largest four traders - short 42.60% -

5Y Treasury - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -1,275,370contracts -

Three-year z-score 1.00σ -

Largest four traders - long 32.40% -

Largest four traders - short 18.10% -

Treasury bond - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -9,097contracts -

Three-year z-score 0.98σ -

Largest four traders - long 20.80% -

Largest four traders - short 39.50% -

Canadian dollar - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -41,775contracts -

Three-year z-score 0.91σ -

Largest four traders - long 64.10% -

Largest four traders - short 30.90% -

Gold - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 179,548contracts -

Three-year z-score -0.87σ -

Largest four traders - long 18.90% -

Largest four traders - short 36.10% -

Dow Jones - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position 10,354contracts -

Three-year z-score 0.55σ -

Largest four traders - long 46.70% -

Largest four traders - short 44.80% -

S&P 500 - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -129,414contracts -

Three-year z-score -0.48σ -

Largest four traders - long 9.90% -

Largest four traders - short 29.70% -

Russell 2000 - 2026-11-03

Net speculative position -23,654contracts -

Three-year z-score 0.15σ -

Largest four traders - long 20.40% -

Largest four traders - short 31.50% -

Leads to

About Futures Risk

Crowded futures positions

This ranks CFTC speculative positions by distance from their own averages. It is not a futures price, margin requirement or prediction of a squeeze.

Read the count

The headline counts markets beyond two standard deviations in either direction. Scores use up to three years of weekly net positions and need 52 reports.

Read the score

Net means non-commercial longs minus shorts. A positive score means above its own average; ranking uses absolute scores, including negative extremes.

Read concentration

Top-four percentages show gross positions held by the largest four traders on each side. They cover all trader types and must match the position date.

Sources and notes

Which futures positions are most stretched against their own three-year history?

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Legacy futures-only non-commercial long positions minus short positions, in contracts.

Scores use a calendar three-year window ending on each market date, including that report, and population standard deviation. At least 52 matched reports and nonzero variation are required.

A positive score means above its own average, even if the net position is negative. Ranking uses the absolute score.

Reports more than two weeks behind the newest listed market have no current score. Missing long or short positions are not filled.

Top-four long and short values are separate gross percentages of open interest for all traders. They are not the share held by speculators alone.

Concentration comes from futures-only financial or disaggregated reports on the exact position date. The two sides are never added together.

Dates describe Tuesday positions, usually published Friday. This app shows no futures prices, index levels, margins or exchange-licensed data.

Commitments of Traders, legacy futures only
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

COT Traders in Financial Futures
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

COT Disaggregated futures
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Natural gas and euro positions most stretched today

In plain words

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