How far has each currency moved against the dollar compared with relative consumer prices since its base month?
This is one textbook relative purchasing-power measure, not a forecast or a recommendation. It does not establish whether the base exchange rate was fairly valued.
All exchange rates are expressed as dollars per unit of the foreign currency. A positive gap means stronger relative to this base-date price benchmark; a negative gap means weaker.
The price benchmark is US CPI growth divided by foreign CPI growth. Gap is (actual exchange-rate growth factor divided by that benchmark factor minus one) times 100.
The base is January 2015 or the first later month containing both positive CPI index levels and an ECB fixing. Each currency can have a different base.
Only shared CPI reference months are compared. The exchange rate is the last archived fixing within each month; later daily rates are not mixed with older CPI.
Monthly CPI dates describe reference periods, not release dates. Gaps are not filled and yearly inflation rates are never chained into an index.
US CPI is seasonally adjusted. Canada and Australia use their original CPI indexes. Coverage and seasonal treatment differ, and CPI includes goods that are not traded.
Source: European Central Bank reference exchange rates; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI. Watch computes the monthly matches, price benchmark and gaps.
Source: Statistics Canada, table 18-10-0004-01, reference months shown. Reproduced on an as is basis with permission under its Open Licence. Source: ABS, CC BY 4.0. Changes are Watch calculations; no endorsement is implied.
CAD uses CPI reference months 2015-01 and 2026-09, with exchange-rate fixings 2015-01-30 and 2026-09-30.
AUD uses CPI reference months 2024-04 and 2026-09, with exchange-rate fixings 2024-04-30 and 2026-09-30.
EUR skipped. No CPI index level is collected for this currency. Only yearly inflation rates are archived.
GBP skipped. No CPI index level is collected for this currency. Only yearly inflation rates are archived.
ECB euro reference exchange rates
European Central Bank
US inflation and labor indicators
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Canada unemployment, consumer prices and retail volume
Statistics Canada
Australian labor and consumer prices
Australian Bureau of Statistics