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Breakeven Inflation

Economy

10Y breakeven
2.24%
3M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y ALL
History
FirstLast
10Y breakeven %2.762.24
5Y breakeven %3.172.30
5Y5Y forward %2.352.18
History % 10Y breakeven: 2.76 to 2.24 % 5Y breakeven: 3.17 to 2.30 % 5Y5Y forward: 2.35 to 2.18 % Nov 15, 21 Nov 13, 26

Long-term inflation expectations dip to 2.18%

Trend down - 5Y5Y forward

In plain words

Bond prices suggest investors expect prices to rise about 2.2% a year over the next ten years. A longer-range part of that view has dropped noticeably since late September, which is why people watch it.

Where it sits

10Y breakeven Low 2.18Now 2.24High 2.50
5Y breakeven Low 2.16Now 2.30High 2.72
5Y5Y forward Low 2.05Now 2.18High 2.36

One-year low to high. Drawn from the data, not by AI.

There is more in this note

What it means if this rises or falls, cause and effect, how it works, the words to know and what to watch next.

Join free to read it

Written by AI from the numbers on this page. Not advice.

Breakevens

5Y 2.30% -1
7Y 2.27% -1
10Y 2.24% +0
20Y 2.37% +0
30Y 2.19% +0
5Y5Y forward 2.18% +1

Behind the 10Y

10Y nominal yield 5.15% +5
10Y real yield 2.91% +5
10Y breakeven 2.24% +0

Changes

1 week 1bps -
1 month -9bps -
3 months 0bps -
1 year -4bps -

Leads to

Breakeven Inflation

1 / 5

Inflation in bonds

What is the gap between ordinary and inflation-adjusted US government bond yields (interest rates)?

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